Mainland China's 16-24 jobless rate eases to 18%, still over twice the 25-29 rate

In mainland China's cities and towns, about 18 of every 100 young people aged 16 to 24 who have left school and are in the labour market still have not found work. That is already the figure after a fall.

According to Trading Economics, citing the National Bureau of Statistics, the surveyed urban jobless rate for 16-to-24-year-olds (excluding students) in mainland China was 18% in September 2026, down from 18.9% in August. For ages 25 to 29 it was 7.4%, against 7.5% in August, while the rate for ages 30 to 59 was unchanged at 3.9%. The national surveyed urban jobless rate edged down from 5.3% in August to 5.2% in September.

In the same month, the jobless rate for 16-to-24-year-olds was more than double that for ages 25 to 29. For new graduates looking for a first job, and for families with a graduate at home, this gap deserves more attention than a single month's rise or fall. Figures for October are expected in mid-November, but as of November 2026 this publication could not find an official National Bureau of Statistics release schedule confirming the date.

A pattern of summer rises and autumn falls

Lining up this year's monthly figures makes the shape fairly clear.

• June: 14.9%. Bloomberg reported this was the highest June reading since students stopped being counted at the end of 2023.
• July: 17.9%. Caixin Global reported this was up 3 percentage points from June and the highest July figure in three years; in July 2025 it was 17.8%.
• August: 18.9%. Trading Economics called this a 12-month high, meaning the rate had risen for two months before September.
• September: 18%, a fall from the previous month.

Trading Economics relays that the National Bureau of Statistics attributed the September fall to graduates gradually finding jobs after the peak of the graduation season in July and August. In other words, youth unemployment usually rises over the summer graduation season and eases in autumn and winter, and this year's path is consistent with that pattern.

The numbers pressing on the market this year are also large. Trading Economics says about 12.7 million university students graduated in summer 2026, a record. However, this figure currently rests on that one website, and this publication could not verify it against an original announcement from the Ministry of Education.

Two caveats before reading these figures

• The 18% for September, the 18.9% for August and the 7.4% for ages 25 to 29 are currently supported by only one source, Trading Economics. This publication could not find the original release page for September's age-group data on the National Bureau of Statistics website, and has seen no second independent source confirming it.
• At the end of 2023 the definition changed to exclude students. When comparing different years, check that the figures use the same definition.

AI and entry-level jobs: discussed in reports, no firm conclusion

AI is often mentioned in discussions of youth employment, but what can currently be found is mainly media commentary rather than a proven causal link.

Trading Economics describes the mainland labour market as affected both by slowing growth and by the rapid expansion of AI. In a July report, Bloomberg said that, with record numbers of graduates, the youth jobless rate could return to levels last seen more than three years ago, and said AI was threatening to replace more entry-level jobs.

Earlier, in April, Bloomberg reported that the jobless rate for ages 25 to 29 rose to 7.7% in March, from 7.2% a year earlier, the highest since the National Bureau of Statistics began listing this age group separately. The report attributed the rise to seasonal pressures and spillover from the Iran war, and said wider use of AI added to employment risks. That report is behind a paywall, so this publication can cite only the visible part.

These are discussions within reports. As of November 2026, this publication has found no verifiable research or official data showing a causal link between AI and youth unemployment on the mainland. When readers come across such claims, it helps to separate what is data from what is inference.

Three points the figures suggest (editorial observations)

The following are general observations compiled by this publication from the data above, not career advice for any individual. This publication has no verifiable information with which to assess particular recruitment platforms, policy measures or skill requirements; please refer to official announcements.

1. Seasonality: the jobless rate peaked in July and August and fell in September, and the National Bureau of Statistics attributed the fall to graduates gradually finding jobs. The summer peak alone may not reflect the whole year.
2. Age gap: the rate for ages 25 to 29 was 7.4%, far below the 18% for ages 16 to 24. The figures cannot describe any individual's job search; they only show a clear gap between the two age groups.
3. Basis of comparison: when the October figures appear, compare them with the same month on the same definition, not with the August high, to avoid being misled by seasonal swings.

The figures to watch next

September's fall is consistent with the seasonal pattern described above. Figures for October and later months are useful mainly when compared with the same month a year earlier; this publication has so far verified only July 2025, at 17.8%, and has no year-earlier data for other months.

Information verified as of 9 November 2026.

Prices and details correct as of November 2026

Compiled by the F50 Editorial Team from public sources, for general reference only and not professional advice. Details are correct as of the publication date and may change.