UK job vacancies fall to 691,000 as regular pay still rises 3.7%

691,000 is the number of job vacancies in the UK in July to September 2026. That is 37,000 fewer than a year earlier, yet regular pay (excluding bonuses) in June to August was still up 3.7% on the year.

Both figures come from the labour market bulletin published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 20 October 2026. For British workers weighing a job move, and for HR teams and headhunters who recruit, the question is not which figure matters more, but how to read the two together.

Fewer vacancies, but pay growth has not stopped

According to the ONS preliminary estimate, vacancies in July to September stood at 691,000, down 21,000 (2.9%) on April to June and down 37,000 (5.1%) on the year. The bulletin says this is the largest quarterly fall since January to March 2026, when vacancies also fell by 21,000.

Other indicators moved fairly modestly. The unemployment rate for June to August was 4.7%, down 0.1 percentage points on both the year and the quarter; the employment rate for those aged 16 to 64 was 75.3%, up 0.2 percentage points on both the year and the quarter. The ONS describes the labour market as "broadly flat" in 2026.

On pay, regular pay growth in June to August was 3.7%; total pay growth including bonuses was also 3.7%, down from 3.9% in the previous three-month period.

A note on timing: the vacancy figure covers July to September, while unemployment and pay cover June to August, so they should not be compared as if they were the same period.

Two sets of figures, best read separately

This article does not link the fall in vacancies to pay growth as cause and effect. A more careful approach is to treat them as two different measures: vacancies show how many jobs are being advertised, while pay growth shows the overall pay trend for people already in work.

Julius Probst, an economist at the Stepstone Group, parent company of the recruitment platform Totaljobs, wrote in an article dated 21 October 2026 that vacancies of about 691,000 are the lowest in more than 12 years outside the pandemic period, and argued that fewer vacancies limit jobseekers' choices. The same article cites feedback from the ONS vacancy survey saying small businesses are the main driver of the hiring slowdown, and states that the number of payrolled employees has fallen by about 170,000 cumulatively since summer 2024.

For jobseekers, then, pay is still rising while vacancies are down on the year and, in Probst's view, choice is narrower as a result; both are true at once.

Inflation is up, so factor prices into pay talks

Another figure not to be overlooked is inflation. According to Professional Pensions on 21 October 2026, the UK consumer prices index (CPI) rose 3.5% on the year in September, up from 3.1% in August and above market expectations; it rose 0.4% on the month.

Pay growth of 3.7% and inflation of 3.5% look close, but the former is a June to August figure and the latter a September figure, so they should not simply be subtracted to get real pay. The Totaljobs article also relays a Bank of England forecast that inflation could rise to slightly above 4% in the first quarter of 2027, at which point real pay growth might turn negative; this is a forecast, not an established fact.

Editor's analysis: practical pointers for job moves and pay talks

The following are general observations compiled by this publication from the public data above. They are not personal career or financial advice.

1. Treat the official figure as a starting point, not an end point: 3.7% is overall national regular pay growth and does not represent any particular sector, region or role. There is currently no verified data on vacancies by sector or on the pay premium for changing jobs, so supplement it with the facts of your own role when negotiating.
2. Put prices on the same page: CPI rose 3.5% on the year in September. When comparing pay for a new role, set out the inflation figure alongside it so both sides can see the real purchasing power of the increase.
3. Timing a move depends on how much choice there is: in Probst's view, fewer vacancies narrow choice. Those already in work may prefer to compare several opportunities rather than rush to accept the first.

For HR teams and headhunters, Totaljobs research suggests about 66% of British workers are passively open to new opportunities. While public vacancies are falling, these people, who are not actively looking but are willing to listen, may deserve more attention beyond job advertisements.

The next date to watch: 17 November

The ONS's next labour market bulletin is due on 17 November 2026, which will show whether the fall in vacancies continues and whether pay growth slows. All data in this article is as of October 2026.

Until the new figures arrive, the most practical step is simple: note today's 691,000, 3.7% and 3.5%, and compare them again next month.

Prices and details correct as of October 2026

Compiled by the F50 Editorial Team from public sources, for general reference only and not professional advice. Details are correct as of the publication date and may change.