US agent recruiting: 35 of 100 new joiners made no sale in first quarter (four MLS markets, 109,176 agents)

In US real estate, signing an agent is only the start. A Q3 2026 report from Recruiting Insight and Lone Wolf Technologies shows that of every 100 agents recruited to a new brokerage, 35 closed no transaction in the first quarter after joining, and 4 had already moved again.

The press release for the report, Agent Migration and Brokerage Model Performance Report – Q3 2026, is dated 20 October 2026. The sample covers only 109,176 producing agents in four large US MLS (Multiple Listing Service) markets, with $688.6 billion in annualised closed volume. The release states that the figures describe these four markets and not the national market.

Scope of the sample: four MLS markets, eight quarters

The four MLS markets are in the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Mid-South and West. The report tracks agent moves over eight quarters, from Q4 2024 to Q3 2026, and draws on 200 hours of exit interviews. Q3 2026 means 1 July to 30 September.

HousingWire's coverage cites the same sample figures, including the 35% of joiners with no closed transaction in their first quarter. Note that all the data in this article comes from Recruiting Insight's research and is not from independent surveys.

Scale of movement: about one in eight agents changes brokerage each year

The report estimates that about 1 in 8 producing agents changes brokerage every year. By the release's calculation, a firm of 100 agents needs to replace about 12 a year to stay the same size.

Movement among high producers is also rising. In Q3 2026, 87 agents producing $20 million or more a year changed firms, up from 73 in Q3 2025 and the most in eight quarters, with about $14.4 billion in annualised production changing hands.

Moves also come in chains. Agents who changed firms in the past year are 1.7 times as likely to move again as other agents. When an office loses 20% or more of its agents to rivals, those who remain are 1.9 times as likely to follow (a figure from the release; HousingWire writes "nearly twice").

Why agents leave is not in the sales figures

The report says agents whose production fell by 25% or more were no more likely to move than other agents. Money is only one of eight main reasons agents leave, and five of those do not appear in transaction data. HousingWire's coverage also says agents leave more because of leadership, culture and support than because of slowing sales.

The peak for moves comes each January. Report author Mark Johnson told HousingWire that the exit interview is not a retention strategy but "an autopsy".

Analysis: what it means for recruiting teams

This section is editorial analysis, not a conclusion of the report. The report does not directly measure the effectiveness of onboarding, but several figures point the same way: the first quarter after signing is what decides whether a recruit was worth it.

If 35 of every 100 joiners have still not closed a deal after their first quarter and 4 have already left, recruiting more people will only magnify the same loss. A statistics article published by Recruiting Insight in May 2026, based on its annual report (184,097 agents, four US MLS regions), also shows that externally recruited agents average $4.27 million in annualised production after joining, below the $5.47 million of internal transfers; 12-month retention is 76% and 89% respectively.

Rather than asking how many people were signed this quarter, ask how many of last quarter's signings have opened a deal. Planning a first-quarter follow-up rhythm and support for the first transaction may be more practical than signing a few more names. Finally, the sample covers only four US MLS markets, so teams elsewhere should compare it with their own data first.

Compiled by the F50 Editorial Team from public sources, for general reference only and not professional advice. Details are correct as of the publication date and may change.