Pay Rise Budgets of 3.8% and 4%: Good Headlines, Take-Home Pay Is Another Matter

Before you negotiate your pay, one figure is worth remembering: in Hong Kong, the best-performing one in nine employees or so received more than a fifth of the pay rise budget.

The figure comes from WTW's salary budget planning survey. The survey was conducted from March to May 2026 and covered 34,024 companies in 156 countries and territories, including 637 organisations in Hong Kong. According to Human Resources Online on 28 July 2026, WTW projects Hong Kong's pay rise for 2027 at about 3.8%, up from 3.5% in 2026.

In Singapore, the two surveys give similar numbers: WTW's budget is 4.0% and Aon's is 4.1%. Southeast Asia as a whole is higher, with Aon projecting an average of 5.2%. All figures in this article are based on public information available as of October 2026.

Three surveys, three angles

• WTW (as reported by People Matters and Human Resources Online): the Asia Pacific average rise goes from 4.7% in 2026 to a projected 4.9% in 2027; Hong Kong from 3.5% to 3.8%, and Taiwan from 3.9% to 4.0%; Singapore's budget for 2027 is 4.0%.
• Aon's 2026 Salary Increase and Turnover Study: conducted from July to September 2026, covering more than 1,200 businesses in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and announced in Singapore on 23 September 2026. The Southeast Asia budget for 2027 averages 5.2%, against 5.0% for 2026.
• Hong Kong Institute of Human Resource Management (HKIHRM) survey: according to The Standard on 24 September 2026, it covered 173 companies across 12 industries and about 180,000 full-time employees; the average pay rise this year is 2.8%, with 2.9% expected for 2027.

The three surveys differ in sample and method. For Hong Kong's 2026 increase, WTW and the institute give 3.5% and 2.8% respectively, and the two should not be compared directly; Aon's study does not cover Hong Kong either. When reading them, it is better to look at the year-on-year change within a single survey.

Southeast Asia: Vietnam highest, Singapore lowest

Among the six markets Aon covers, Vietnam has the highest budget for 2027 at 6.7%, followed by Indonesia at 5.5%, the Philippines at 5.3%, Malaysia at 4.8% and Thailand at 4.6%, with Singapore last at 4.1%.

According to HCA Magazine (HRD Asia) on 29 September 2026, citing Aon data, Singapore's budget of 4.1% is the same as its actual increase in 2026, while the actual increase in 2025 was 4.3%. Singapore's sectors also differ: retail and hospitality is highest at 4.8%, and energy and financial services lowest at 3.8%.

On attrition, the same report says the regional average for 2026 was 16.6%. Singapore stood at 16.8%, down from 19.3% in 2025; Malaysia (17.4%) and the Philippines (17.3%) were highest, and Indonesia (15.5%) lowest.

The budget is one thing; take-home pay is another

A pay rise budget is the overall percentage a company sets aside for all employees; it is not a figure that everyone will receive. WTW's Singapore data shows that three-quarters of employers said their adjustments fall between 2.5% and 5.0%, and 58% of employers do not plan major changes to pay arrangements.

Budgets are not always delivered in full. The same data shows that 54% of Singapore employers said their 2026 budget matched plans, 26% said it was lower, and only 7% said it was higher. In Hong Kong, nearly half of employers expect the 2027 budget to stay unchanged, 25% expect it to be lowered, and only 9% expect it to be raised.

The factors behind these decisions are quite down to earth. The top two named by Singapore employers are cost management (35.1%) and inflation (31.1%), followed by weaker financial performance (28.4%) and labour market and retention concerns (20.3%).

Step one: deduct inflation first

A nominal rise does not mean higher purchasing power. The institute's survey shows that Hong Kong's average pay rise this year is 2.8%, but only 1.1% after inflation, the lowest since the pandemic. In other words, prices have absorbed a fair part of the increase.

When working out your own real increase, use the official inflation figures published by the government statistics department rather than guessing.

Step two: understand how pay rises are allocated by performance

Pay rise budgets are allocated by performance, and the average is only a starting point. WTW's Hong Kong data shows that employees rated top performers made up 11.1% of the workforce but received 21.8% of the pay rise budget, while average performers made up 62.7% and received only 57.3%.

That is, average performers received a smaller share than their share of the workforce. This allocation data covers Hong Kong only; this article has not found comparable public figures for other markets.

Using these figures to discuss pay with your manager

1. Find the right benchmark. Cite figures that match your city and industry. For example, if you work in financial services in Singapore, the 3.8% Aon lists for that sector is a closer fit than the Southeast Asia average of 5.2%.
2. Focus on performance. Hong Kong's data shows budgets tilting towards stronger performers, so preparing concrete results is more persuasive than simply quoting the market average.
3. Talk about real terms, not just nominal ones. Explain what the increase means after inflation, so the discussion returns to purchasing power.
4. Mind the company's situation. If your employer is focused on controlling costs, conditions other than salary, such as scope of responsibility, training opportunities or flexible arrangements, may offer more room to negotiate.

Before changing jobs, do the sums

The same figures can be used to assess a new offer. If staying for another year would bring only an increase close to the average budget, the new job's increase needs to be clearly higher than that to be worthwhile; here too, deduct inflation.

Nor should a job change rest on monthly pay alone. According to The Standard, the institute's immediate past president advised companies not to rely on salary alone to retain staff; conversely, jobseekers should also weigh career prospects, workload and benefits when comparing.

You can bring the survey figures into the meeting room, but remember to prepare your own concrete results as well.

Prices and details correct as of October 2026

Compiled by the F50 Editorial Team from public sources, for general reference only and not professional advice. Details are correct as of the publication date and may change.