Fewer Layoffs, Even Fewer Hires: Reading the US 'Low-Hire, Low-Fire' Job Market

43,281 jobs. That is how many positions US employers announced they would cut in September 2026, the lowest total for a September since 2022. It sounds like good news until you see the other number: hiring plans announced the same month came to just 90,787, the weakest September since 2011.

Both figures come from the monthly report published on 1 October 2026 by the US outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas (Challenger). Bloomberg reported the same day under the headline of the fewest September job cuts since 2022. Fewer people are being let go, but fewer are being hired too. This 'low-hire, low-fire' picture means different things for those staying in a job and those looking to move.

Layoff announcements keep falling

According to Challenger, announced job cuts in September were down 18% from 52,881 in August and down 20% from 54,064 in September 2025. Across the whole quarter, 129,591 cuts were announced in the third quarter of 2026, 43% fewer than the 226,242 in the second quarter and 36% fewer than in the third quarter of 2025.

For the year to date, the total through September 2026 was 573,195, down 39% year on year. Excluding government, however, it was 550,185, a fall of 15%. In other words, a good part of the year-on-year decline comes from government cuts; without them, the drop is smaller than the headline figure suggests.

The hiring gap lies in the holiday season

The hiring story lies in the detail. Hiring plans from January to September 2026 totalled 210,612, actually 3% higher than a year earlier. What was genuinely weak was September itself: down 23% year on year, because seasonal hiring was subdued.

Challenger said that in September only Spirit Halloween and Michaels announced seasonal hiring, about 62,000 workers between them. In September 2025, seasonal employers announced 100,800 in total. Retail still led all industries with 65,150 hiring plans.

'Announced' and 'actual' are not the same

Challenger tracks layoffs and hiring plans that companies announce publicly, which is not the same as the number of people actually affected. For actual employment, one has to turn to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

• Nonfarm payrolls: BLS reported on 2 October 2026 that employment rose by only 29,000 in September, which it described as little changed.
• Unemployment: the rate was 4.2% in September, with 7.1 million people unemployed, within a range of 4.1% to 4.3% since March.
• Revisions: July was revised from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August from 162,000 to 133,000, so the two months combined were 60,000 lower than first reported.
• Turnover: the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed 7.1 million job openings in August 2026, 5.2 million hires (a 3.3% rate), 1.6 million layoffs and discharges (1.0%) and 3.1 million quits (1.9%).

Fewer layoffs do not mean more opportunity: September payrolls rose by only 29,000, and the July and August figures were revised down. September JOLTS data had not yet been released at the time of writing, so the turnover figures above are for August.

How Challenger reads it

What follows is Challenger's commentary, not established cause and effect. Andy Challenger, the firm's chief revenue officer, described employers as being 'in a wait-and-see period' (Challenger report, our translation) and said this year has lacked the surge in hiring that normally comes with the holiday season. As reported by Bloomberg, he pointed to high energy costs, the conflict involving Iran, a possible rate hike and rising healthcare costs as pressures on employers, and said the absence of holiday hiring reflects a cautious approach.

Among the reasons employers gave to Challenger, 'Market and Economic Conditions' was the most common for September cuts, covering 8,789 jobs (20%). Artificial intelligence accounted for only 3,961 in September, but 120,136 so far in 2026, about 21%, making it the leading reason this year to date.

Technology is no safe harbour

Some may assume technology is an exception, but Challenger's data do not support that. Tech announced 10,799 cuts in September, 77% more than the 6,103 in August. The year-to-date total is 165,925, up 54% year on year, and 29% of all announced cuts in 2026, the largest share of any industry. The BLS report does not break out technology employment separately.

Layoffs overall are ebbing, but tech layoffs are rising.

Analysis: staying and moving each have their own calculus

The following is our own analysis. BLS data show 1.9 million people were long-term unemployed in September, 27.1% of the unemployed, essentially unchanged. There is no reliable data on how long job searches took in September 2026, but with hiring plans weak and the quits rate at just 1.9% in August, anyone planning a move should expect the process not to be quick.

The mix of industries also deserves attention. September gains came mainly in health care (17,000), construction (11,000) and manufacturing (9,000). Financial activities fell by 7,000 and are down 129,000 since the May 2025 peak, mostly in insurance carriers, while nursing and residential care fell by 9,000.

On pay, average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents to $37.81 in September, up 3.0% over 12 months, and 4.5 million people were working part time for economic reasons. Some may choose to stay in their current job and look for internal moves, but there is no reliable data showing internal transfers are increasing, so this is simply an option worth considering.

Practical preparation: skills and cash

This is general information, not financial or career advice for any individual's circumstances. All data cited are for the United States, as of October 2026.

1. Take stock of your skills first. Artificial intelligence is the reason employers have cited most often for layoffs so far in 2026, so it is worth reviewing which parts of your work are easiest to replace and prioritising abilities that are hard to automate.
2. Keep a cash buffer. Work out an emergency reserve from your own monthly fixed costs and assume a job move could take longer than expected; for specific amounts and arrangements, consult a licensed professional.
3. Watch for opportunities both inside and outside your current employer. When hiring slows, internal roles and cross-team projects can be another route, but they should not be taken for granted.
4. Look at the industry, not just the headline. September's new jobs were concentrated in health care, construction and manufacturing, while technology and financial activities face cuts.
5. Do not be led by first-release figures. BLS numbers for July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000, so a single month's data can be rewritten at any time.

In a market where everyone is waiting and watching, being forced to move without preparation is often the bigger risk. While layoffs remain low, get your skills and your cash in order first.

Prices and details correct as of October 2026

Compiled by the F50 Editorial Team from public sources, for general reference only and not professional advice. Details are correct as of the publication date and may change.